Sweden · 2026 general election
Swedish election
A market-based view of the prime-minister race, party strength and the path to Sweden's next government.
123
Magdalena Andersson
91%Social Democrats
98.6%8
01
Prime minister race
Compare candidate probabilities across Kalshi and Polymarket over time. Contracts are independent and do not need to sum to 100%.
02
Largest party
Winner probabilities from both venues, displayed on one comparable timeline.
03
Government participation
How markets price each party's chance of participating in the next Swedish government.
04
Latest election news
Recent reporting from the continuous Swedish-news ingestion.
L över riksdagsspärren enligt SVT:s vallokalsundersökning
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
”Tydlig vänstersväng” i Riksdagsskolvalet – men ändå högerseger
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
Därför klädde man upp sig på valdagen förr
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
Över två timmars kö i Umeå – Valmyndigheten: ”Ovanligt”
svt · Sep 13, 2026
Professorn: Så ska man tolka siffrorna under valdagen
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
Tidigare MP-ledaren om valdagskänslan: ”Som att få tillbaka en tenta gånger hundra”
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
Experterna: Fler varningar för motståndarsidan i årets valrörelse
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
Liberale nestorn Hadar Cars äldst av riksdagskandidaterna
sr-ekot · Sep 13, 2026
05
Örebro Party entering the Riksdag
Kalshi market probability of the Örebro Party winning at least one Riksdag seat in the 2026 Swedish general election.
Loading Örebro Party history…
06
All election markets
Browse all 123 markets from Kalshi and Polymarket. Select a market to open its full record and price history.
- 38.55%
Green Party: Who will win the next Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 25.05%
Left Party: Who will win the next Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 2.05%
Moderate Party: Who will win the next Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 8.6%
Sweden Democrats: Who will win the next Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 98.6%
Swedish Social Democratic Party: Who will win the next Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 0.1%
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 67%
Will Centre Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 4.5%
Will Centre Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Centre Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Centre Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 43.5%
Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 7%
Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 2%
Will Centre Party receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 98.5%
Will Centre Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 98%
Will Centre Party receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 96.5%
Will Centre Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 67.5%
Will Centre Party receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 85%
Will Centre Party receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 51.5%
Will Centre Party receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 41.5%
Will Centre Party receive at least 9% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 45%
Will Christian Democrats be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 46%
Will Christian Democrats be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 0.5%
Will Christian Democrats finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Christian Democrats finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 7%
Will Christian Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 0.35%
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 0.5%
Will Ebba Busch become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 0.1%
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 68.5%
Will Green Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 17%
Will Green Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Green Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Green Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 19%
Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 11% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 87.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 97.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 94.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 89.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 52%
Will Green Party receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 48.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 6.5%
Will Green Party receive at least 9% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 85%
Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Liberals win at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026?
kalshi
- 0.25%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 1%
Will Jimmie Åkesson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 32%
Will Left Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 3.5%
Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 0.5%
Will Left Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Left Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 41%
Will Left Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 31.5%
Will Liberals be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 53%
Will Liberals be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Liberals finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Liberals finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Liberals finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 88.5%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 91%
Will Magdalena Andersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 43%
Will Moderate Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 2%
Will Moderate Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 69%
Will Moderate Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 25%
Will Moderate Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Moderate Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 97.5%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 13% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 61%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 50%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 72.5%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 17% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 66.5%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 51%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 19% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 4%
Will Moderate Party receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 0.1%
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 13.5%
Will Sweden Democrats be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Sweden Democrats be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 29%
Will Sweden Democrats finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 69%
Will Sweden Democrats finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Sweden Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 98.5%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 95%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 17% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 48.5%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 48%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 19% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 47%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 44.5%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 6%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 35%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 5%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 32%
Will Sweden Democrats receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 82%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?
kalshi
- 0.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 69.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 27% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 46%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 25%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 19.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 9.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 3%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 33% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1.5%
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 1.05%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?
polymarket
- 0.15%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.2%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.15%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 10.05%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
polymarket
- 0.15%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.4%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 36.5%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 61.5%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 86.5%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 99.8%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 0.1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 10.5%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
polymarket
- 8.5%
Will Ulf Kristersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?
kalshi
- 2.25%
Will Örebropartiet (ÖP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
polymarket
- 13.5%
Örebropartiet: Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Orebro Party wins at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026?
kalshi